Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis
New York Oct 27-28, 2010
- Activate and exercise practical and critical risk-based thinking skills
- Develop effective and useful risk models in support of decision analysis
- Build object-oriented spreadsheet models that operationalize complex variables in business and enterprise
- Apply distributions, activate simulation, optimize project results, model correlations and apply forecasting
- Engage in real-time commercial discussions with active risk modeler and decision analyst
MODELING SKILL LEVEL
Intermediate-to-Advanced
OBJECTIVES
Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis is a Vair Training Master Class and focuses on risk management for virtually any industry and its related modeling issues. This course covers the basic principles of quantitative-risk analysis and the most important risk modeling principles, methods and techniques. The focus of the workshop is how to conduct accurate and effective quantitative-risk analyses, including best practices of risk modeling, selecting appropriate distributions, using data and expert opinion, and avoiding common mistakes. The course covers assessment of uncertainty, simulation, time-series forecasting, optimization, correlation, eliciting and modeling expert estimates, and communicating riskanalysis results. The training enables participants to produce realistic, high quality corporate finance risk-analysis models in a manner that provides decision makers with the clearest and most helpful input. In addition, the course covers essential probability and statistics theory and various stochastic processes in order to provide course participants with a solid understanding of quantitative risk-analysis methods and techniques.
OUTLINE
| Part 1 | Introduction to Risk Analysis |
| Part 2 | Introduction to Statistical Descriptors |
| Part 3 | Introduction to Probability Theory |
| Part 4 | Introduction to Risk Modeling |
| Part 5 | Stochastic Processes - the basis of risk analysis |
| Part 6 | Hypergeometric Process |
| Part 7 | Practical Problems to Solve |
| Part 8 | Best Practices in Risk Modeling |
| Part 9 | Example Risk Analyses |
| Part 10 | Wrap-up and review of course material |
VENUES
Vair Training courses are held at world-class international venues. Registration fees include morning coffee/tea, networking lunches and afternoon refreshments. Course materials are provided electronically on-site. Detailed venue descriptions, times and logistics are included with post-registration materials and documents.
