Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis

  • Understand and employ Monte Carlo simulation
  • Learn how to assess and understand the risks and uncertainties in your business
  • Develop clear, robust and useful risk models
  • Learn to manage your risks effectively
  • Turn risk-taking into a competitive advantage
  • Engage in real-time commercial discussions with a world-renowned risk analysis expert




Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis teaches participants how to design and build a risk analysis model. This course provides learners with an introduction to the techniques and experience needed to produce a high-quality risk analysis for business or project development. The has a strong practical focus on the application of risk analysis to business decisions and demonstrates how to use risk analysis models to guide decisions in the face of significant uncertainty.

Risk analysis is now an established business tool that is widely used across many different industries. However, most employees charged with performing these risk analyses have had no formal training in risk modeling, resulting in incorrect and misleading results. This training course will help ensure that participants can have confidence in the quality and accuracy of their work.

No prior knowledge of risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation or probability theory is required, but participants should have a reasonable working knowledge of Excel.


Part 1

Overview of Monte Carlo simulation

Part 2

Building the model

Part 3

Adding risk and uncertainties

Part 4

Running Simulations

Part 5

Viewing and interpreting results

Part 6

Review of common distributions

Part 7

Building correlations into the model

Part 8

Time series models and forecasting

Part 9

Interpreting NPV distributions

Part 10

Fitting probability distributions to data

Part 11

Calibrating time series forecasts to data

Part 12

Fitting correlation structures to data

Part 9

Explanation of common errors in Monte Carlo simulation and how to avoid them


Vair Training courses are held at world-class international venues. Registration fees include morning coffee/tea, networking lunches and afternoon refreshments. Course materials are provided electronically on-site. Detailed venue descriptions, times and logistics are included with post-registration materials and documents.


2-day Public Courses are US$2,950 per delegate. Fees include all course materials and training. 10% Early-Bird Discounts are applied to registrations and payments received at least 8 weeks prior to individual courses. Additionally, 10% Combo-Course Discounts are applied when the same delegate registers for back-to back courses delivered on consecutive dates. Group-Rates Discounts are also available: please inquire +1 404 512 5936 or info@vaircompanies.com